The Stockmarket's Red Glare

The Whitney Theater (Hamden, CT) marqueeNo support means the market index has potential
advertised movies for children ("Gidget"..."The Highto keep falling until it finds a support line/base or
and the Mighty"). Every kids matinee, thebottom. Markets stall when reaching a high price
manager would pick a ticket out of a largeon average daily stock trading volume. Bulls
popcorn box. He would give the winner candy,(buyers) will strain to push the markets upward,
free soda and popcorn, or a toy connected tobut Bears (sellers) thwart the momentum. An
the movie.excessive number of sellers (many more than the
One afternoon he read the numbers on my ticketaverage) can force an index/stock to new lows.
stub. The prize was an air-pumped rocket. My"Make it go higher!" My toy rocket did not reach
friend Elly and I went to an open field, pumped itheights too fast. Elly and I were ten or eleven
as hard as we could, and let it go. It went straightyears old; we wanted that rocket to disappear in
up, stalled, lost momentum, nose-dived and hit thethe clouds. Many investors act the same way;
sidewalk.they want the markets to go up and up because
Stock Markets soar and crash too. Stock Marketit means more money. When markets hit
traders sometimes become kids with a toy.successive days of positive returns, investors get
Every day the market pumps itself up. Indicesstarry-eyed. We like it when Neil Cavuto (among
spiral upward making many giddy with kiddishothers) reports new highs for the Dow (read "
delight; nobody wants this rocket to fall from itsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average: Failing the
lofty heights. With little notice, the market stalls,Average Investor [ by Steven Selengut).
momentum is lost, and markets crash.Dizzying heights cause most investors to miss
Simple laws of gravity inform us that upwardsubtle market moves. Stocks/indices must move
moves of any force require energy andhigher on strong buying volume. When markets
momentum. The stock market is ruled by thereach a bench-marked high level, getting past it
same laws. Markets cannot, will not, and have notwill take three times the average number of daily
moved in one direction without correcting. Thisbuyers.If the price stalls at the bench-marked high
means that bull markets are not forever, andand the buying volume is less than the daily
bear markets are bearable.average, index prices decline.
"What happened?" My toy rocket did not give me"Don't worry." Elly never worried; I always
any warning when falling to reality. Stock marketsworried. When that rocket went off, I feared it
project warning signs when upward momentumwould break a window or hurt someone. Elly said,
stalls. You never want markets to go up forever."Just pump it Ray and let it go!" Some stock
It is best when markets move up, pause,investors never worry. Wise Wall Streeters know
contract, and build a base before making theirthat "The market needs to climb a wall of worry."
next move.War, high oil prices, poor consumer sentiment, and
A base-line provides support for a market indexFederal Reserve rate increases are walls of
like the Dow or the S&P. Long support linesworry. Euphoric investors topple markets.
give investors solace because it takes a lot ofSomething to Fear The Vix Index is the "fear
sellers to break through it. A support line or baseindex" When the Vix spikes, worry increases;
(see image) is a trading pattern of stock buyingwhen the Vix is down, optimism is excessive.
and selling with little price change.Today, May 22, 2006), the Vix spiked.